Market positioning appears influenced by systematic trading, with recent price signals pointing to emerging markets and carry trades as the dollar stalls, possibly leading to a correction. Uncertainty persists due to a lack of US data and political tensions, shifting focus to local markets (excluding gold). Once the US government reopens, data may show declining momentum, potentially hindering the dollar's gains.

I misjudged the yen's swift reaction; it's trading independently of factors like US fixed income or JGB auctions. I exited my short position at 151.20 but believe the move is overextended without fresh data. Retaining short euro positions, I’ve reduced gbpsek shorts and maintained eursek shorts. Gold supports the rand, while other assets are being trimmed. Consider fading short eurhuf positions up to 395.

The euro is weakening gradually, with political instability in France adding pressure. Elections seem likely, but Macron resigning is improbable. The euro breached its 100-day level, forcing momentum traders to adjust. If prices approach the 1.1580/50 range, I’d consider reducing shorts but remain bearish on the dollar medium-term, seeking position-flipping opportunities.

There’s not much to say about sterling; the market continues to struggle, and considering the situation in France, it’s likely that there will be significant selling of EURGBP and EURUSD by hedge funds. The headline this morning was *UK STATS ERROR REDUCES PSNB BY £2B FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR TO DATE, which seems beneficial! However, there’s still no update from the OBR. Given my assumption that they might want to preempt any bad news, could it be possible that the revision of productivity was not as severe as anticipated? It remains uncertain. The primary movement we observed yesterday was corporate selling (1z) in cable, with the 1.3390/00 level roughly holding, while there’s resistance at 1.3530/35. The support in the cross may soon face scrutiny at 0.8665, with the key level below being 0.8600.

It seems you were meant to pursue a decline in JPY following Takaichi! I anticipated some continuation in JPY selling from SHF, but I didn't foresee the surge in speculative JPY selling demand, particularly given Takaichi's somewhat less impactful presence (refer to Honda's comments). In this environment focused on fiscal matters, where carry trades dominate, JPY appears to be the least favored – and indeed, cross JPY has indicated this trend for some time, which provided the impetus for USDJPY to finally breach the significant level around 150 to 151.50. Our shorts on USDJPY inspired by Honda didn’t hold for long, but we wisely adhered to our risk threshold of 151.20/30 and have now retreated to the sidelines. I continue to believe that the Bank of Japan's valuation is undervalued, despite the recent disappointing wage data from Japan. If we maintain this trajectory towards 155 in the upcoming sessions, we could enter a risky area for the Ministry of Finance, which has shown little interest in intervening. As previously noted, SHF has purchased JPY for the third session (1z), RM followed with a second purchase (1z), yet the DHF’s purging trend paused in cash markets (though not in options!). Reviewing the USDJPY charts, there's a minor resistance at 153.70/80, but little until 154.90/00; 151.20/30 now serves as support, while CHFJPY and EURJPY continue to break into new high ground. The Fed's meeting minutes are released tonight.