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BOE Up Next
Following on from the FOMC last night, market focus today will be fixed firmly on the BOE. Traders are widely expecting the bank to refrain from further tightening, reflecting the drop in inflation and the weakening of recent data points. With plenty of talk of UK recession risks following a negative October GDP reading, traders will be looking today to gauge any signs that the BOE is shifting towards an easing bias, as we heard from the Fed yesterday.
Last Meeting
At the last meeting, the BOE was seen reaffirming its commitment to battling inflation, noting that the job was not done. Consequently, the door was held open to further tightening and GBP was seen trading higher. However, weaker economic data since that meeting has seen the market scaling back its tightening expectations with conversation now focused on determining when the BOE is likely to ease.
Voting Split
Looking at today’s meeting, traders will be focused on two things: firstly, the voting split, and secondly, the forward guidance. A voting split of 6-3 last time around showed three members still in favour of hiking, if this has softened, GBP is likely to come under fresh pressure, particularly if any members dissent the other way and are seen voting for a cut already.
Guidance in Focus
In terms of forward guidance, the focus will be on whether the bank still sees the potential need for further hiking and whether its still deemed necessary to keep rates at restrictive levels for longer. If this language is altered, particularly if there is an explicit mention of easing, again GBP should be sold post-meeting. On the other hand, if the voting stays the same and the forward guidance remains largely unaltered from last time (door open to further hikes) this should keep GBP supported near-term.
Technical Views
GBPUSD
Following the correction lower from the initial test above 1.2659, GBPUSD is now testing the level once again. Bulls are looking for a break higher here and a continuation of the bull channel towards the 1.2992 level longer-run. If we fail here again, next support will be the bull channel lows and 1.2437 level.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.