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Lagarde On Watch
The Euro has fallen to its lowest level since early June ahead of the keenly awaited Jackson Hole Symposium taking place today. The event will feature hotly anticipated comments from both Fed’s Powell and ECB’s Lagarde, creating double the risk for EURUSD. On the back of yet further eurozone data weakness this week, ECB rate hike expectations have been paired back. If Lagarde strikes a more concerned tone over the health of the eurozone economy this will likely be seen as further diluting rate hike chances in the eurozone, leading EUR lower near-term.
Will Powell Reaffirm FOMC Hawkishness?
The other part of the equation for EURUSD is Powell. On the back of a hawkish set of FOMC minutes, USD could well see a fresh wave of buying if Powell is seen reiterating those comments, warning of the likely need for further tightening given that inflation remains elevated. However, if Powell strikes a less hawkish tone, this could well see USD unwinding as traders scale back their Fed rate hike bets for the remainder of the year. As such, there is plenty to watch today and plenty of volatility risk for EURUSD.
Technical Views
EURUSD
The failure above the 1.12 level has seen the market reversing sharply lower with EURUSD breaking down below the rising trend line and now testing below the 1.0785 level also. A break here will be firmly bearish for the pair, opening the way for a test of 1.0515 next, in line with falling momentum studies.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.