Core CPI Holds Steady

The latest set of UK CPI figures released today has seen GBP trading higher as traders move to price in a further BOE hike in September. The headline CPI reading was seen cooling to 6.8% from the prior month’s 7.9% reading, a little above the 6.7% the market was looking for, but a solid drop, nonetheless. However, core CPI was the main issue, remaining unchanged at 6.9%. Stickiness in this reading, which strips out more volatile components such as food and energy prices, is a major red flag for the BOE, showing that its inflation battle is still very much alive.

Further Tightening Seen

While the BOE has signalled its desire to move away from tightening, the bank warned that it will remain data dependent and adjust as necessary depending on the trajectory of inflation. Given that core CPI is still sitting more than 300% above the bank’s target, a further .25% next month looks to be the base case scenario with the bank likely to again signal the potential for further tightening if necessary.

Growth Concerns

While GBP is seeing some short-term lift on the back of today’s data, growth concerns are likely to hamper the currency longer term. Both the IMF and BOE have said that they no longer forecast a recession in the UK this year. However, with growth still at anaemic levels, risks remain large and the NIESR recently released a report forecasting a 60% chance of a UK recession next year.

Technical Views

GBPUSD

The sell off in GBPUSD has stalled for now into a test of the 1.2659 level support. Given the overall bull trend, the recent downside move can be viewed as corrective, keeping the focus on a fresh move higher while a.12659 holds as support. However, should price break these lows, 1.2437 is the next support to watch.