BTC Heavily Sold

Bitcoin has come under heavy selling pressure through the back end of the week with the futures market on course for its third connective losing day, now down almost 7% from the week’s highs. The move comes amidst a fresh uptick in USD as traders navigate concerning headlines on the US/Iran war. Two separate sets of tit-for tat military exchanges this week have raised fears that the ceasefire is at risk of collapsing. Despite the US insisting that the ceasefire is still in place, Iran has warned that US attacks constitute a breach of the ceasefire and any further attacks will be dealt with more harshly. Risk assets have recoiled today accordingly as USD and oil prices push higher again. Against this backdrop, BT looks vulnerable to further losses near-term as investors reallocate away from riskier positions into safe-haven plays.  

US Data & Weekend Risks

Near-term, BTC could move lower today if we see any data strength across a slew of incoming US releases this afternoon. Core PCE and prelim q/q GDP will be closely watched with any upside likely to further strengthen the view that the Fed will hike rates this year. If we do see any strong readings today, USD is likely to push higher accordingly, further diluting risk sentient and pulling BTC lower into the weekend. Into next week, focus will be on incoming headlines around the Iran war with the lines very evenly drawn: any further attacks or breakdown in negotiations will see BTC heavily lower while any breakthrough in talks or signs that a deal is coming should see BTC rebounding sharply higher.

Technical Views

BTC

The sell off in BTC has seen price trading below the $74,270 level, now testing the bull channel lows. 69,605 will be the next support to watch below here with bulls needing to defend that level to prevent a deeper drop towards the 62,470 zone.